Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
